| XJO: Cautiously Bullish... - by Adrian Tout, May 19 2013  Today I take a look at the Australian Top 200 Stocks - the XJO Index. I also look at what is going on with the Aussie / Yen cross pair... as this is where our market is most likely to take its cues. In summary, my sentiment is cautiously bullish. Put another way - it's still too early for me to become a bear given the strength in the intermediate and long-term trends. However, when I look at (a) the 61.8% zone outside the current distribution; (b) the 10-day EMA; (c) the MACD rolling; and (d) the AUD/JPY cross pair... I know to be on high alert... read more |
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| The Legend of the Tepper Rally...
David Tepper runs Appaloosa Management often has been credited with sparking the "Tepper Rally" in September 2010... he is bullish on equities and explains why read more
| Gold and Silver: Going Nowhere For Now
Like its cousin gold, silver also has very strong fundamentals however the technical set up is just awful. What are the key levels we should be looking at? read more
| Cheap Rides: Great Fun But They All End
This week marked 178 days since a 5%+ pullback in the S&P 500, tying the record for stretches without a pullback. CNBC's Jim Cramer says this market is like nothing he has ever seen before. read more
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| Gold: $1,200 Looks Likely in the Near Term
May 16 - Quick look at gold and where I think it's headed in the near-term. $1,200 may be the target... read more
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Are We Richer or Poorer Today? - Sep 30 '12 Most people will immediately answer "richer"! But are we? How do you measure it? Are we working far more to own less? read more |
Wayne Swan will hand down the Aussie Federal Budget tomorrow night. His last! The deficit is likely to be very big. But there is a much bigger concern... read more
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| Chart of the Day: WES: Target Update Disappoints
- by Adrian Tout, May 17 2013
Before I look at WES -- a couple of quick words: The market is struggling at the 5200 zone. Keep your eye on 5180 - that's the 10-day EMA. If it breaks... we could see a sharp move lower. A couple of weeks ago I issued a chart on WES... you can read it here. At the time I said I was watching this for a potential sell - however it was still premature. The short and intermediate trends were bullish. So we stayed patient. Today WES shocked the market with a dismal sales update from Target... not surprising really when you consider the balance of Australian retail. It's in the toilet. The stock is down a whopping 3.5% in an otherwise flat to slightly positive market. It is still too early to short WES at this point... but it's starting to take shape. Let's put it on the radar and I will walk you through my logic. First up the short-term structure:  We see the intermediate trend still in tact - with the 10-day above the 35-day. Today's 3.5% smashing has seen WES come to rest virtually on the 10-day EMA. My view is the 35-day may act as support. WES actually sent a nice buy signal at around Apr 18 - confirmed by the MACD. This was good enough to see a nice ~6% move in the stock - enough to take some quick profit. However, the bulls were issued warning when the stock moved from $43.00 to $42.50. From there - the price rallied to reach all time highs above $44.00 (for no reason... does there need to be one?)... however the MACD did not confirm the move. Before I close - I want to also show you the long-term chart. The reason being is the market has a very good memory... and long term highs (or lows) will often acts as key levels. 
WES: Long Term Chart (May 17 2013)
In this case, I am watching the 2007 high of $42.54. This is about where we are trading today. What I would like to see is failure below this level... and close back below the 10-week EMA (around $40.00). That would set up for a nice long-term sell - subject to confirmation from the weekly MACD. WES is not a sell yet... but in the short-term... it is setting up nicely. The dismal operating / sales performance of Target may be the catalyst.
Trade the tape…
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